Make It Great: The Vision Mid-Year 2024 Economic Outlook | Guided by our new concept, “Make It Great,” we aim to take confident steps forward and act as a dedicated partner to investors. The event will also feature the unveiling of our new logo.
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Bluebell Securities Co., Ltd. (Bluebell) held an exclusive seminar titled “Make it Great: The Vision Mid-Year 2024 Economic Outlook.” The event was organized for High-Net-Worth (HNW) and Ultra-High-Net-Worth (UHNW) investors, as well as investment advisors, independent financial advisors, and business partners.
“We are honored and would like to thank all of our investors, sales partners, and debenture issuers for their confidence and trust,” said Ms. Narissara Chaiwattana, CEO of Bluebell Securities Co., Ltd. (Bluebell). “This trust has allowed Bluebell Securities to achieve continuous and stable growth.”
On this occasion, we also developed a new Bluebell logo to more clearly reflect our “Make It Great” concept, which communicates our commitment, strength, ingenuity, integrity, and humility.
“We are determined to ensure the stable growth of the Bluebell brand,” she stated. “The ‘Make It Great’ philosophy is about creating the best possible investment experience for everyone. It means using our experience, knowledge, analysis, dedication to detail, and a sincere commitment to stand by our clients. This philosophy will challenge and empower our organization and every staff member to deliver excellent results, ensuring that Bluebell Securities remains a top-of-mind choice for investors forever.”
Navigating Your Investment Portfolio with Debentures: Understanding the Principle of Risk and Return
“In a time of significant financial market volatility, a purpose-driven investment strategy becomes especially crucial,” said Dr. Somjin Sornpaisarn, Managing Director of the Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA).
“The key to a successful bond investment strategy lies in understanding three main types of risk: interest rate risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk.”
In the second half of the year, interest rate risk is expected to be low. This is because the US Federal Reserve’s policy is likely to move toward two interest rate cuts, while Thailand’s policy rate is expected to remain stable or possibly see one cut.
As for credit risk and liquidity risk, you should always analyze the issuer’s creditworthiness and ability to repay debt before making an investment decision. This information, along with industry data, can be found on the ThaiBMA website. It’s also crucial to ensure the investment’s duration aligns with your holding period.
Most importantly, you must understand the principle that risk and return go hand in hand. By avoiding excessive concentration in a single bond or issuer, you can build a portfolio that delivers strong returns in line with the level of risk you are willing to accept.
Investing Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: The U.S. Still Has Room to Grow
CFA Kiattisak Preechaanusorn, Chief Alternative Investment Officer at Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd., stated that macroeconomic factors continue to support market growth in the second half of the year, with the US GDP expected to grow by 3.2% this year.
“While the labor market is beginning to slow, the chance of a recession remains low. At the same time, inflation has decreased significantly, which will likely prompt the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.
“Although the stock market has seen a substantial rally this year, particularly the S&P 500 Index, this growth has been concentrated in a few Big Tech stocks. Other sectors have not seen significant gains, but we expect them to move higher in the second half of the year, supported by improving earnings.
“Krungsri Asset Management’s recommended funds are KF-SINCOME, KF-CSINCOM, KFSINCFX, KFGLOBAL, and KFGLOBFX.”
Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: South Korea and India’s Stock Markets Remain Attractive
Mr. Piyapat Phatraphuwadol, Director of Investment Strategy at SCB Asset Management Co., Ltd., noted that the South Korean stock market stands to benefit from the AI trend, given its leading companies in the mobile device and memory chip industries. Additionally, South Korea’s market has an attractive valuation based on its forward P/E ratio. The government’s Corporate Value-up Program, which aims to reform the capital market, is also expected to drive long-term growth.
SCB Asset Management’s recommended fund is SCBKEQTG.
Another interesting stock market is India, which is seeing strong economic growth and corporate earnings. Its favorable demographics support long-term expansion in consumption and the labor force. Politically, with the recent elections concluded, there’s an expectation of policy continuity from the government.
SCB Asset Management recommends the SCBINDIA fund for this market.
Investment Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: Thailand’s Economic Growth Accelerates and Global Tech Theme
Dr. Somchai Amornthum, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Krungthai Asset Management Public Company Limited (KTAM), stated that KTAM forecasts the Thai economy will likely expand by 3.0% in 2024, an improvement from the 1.9% growth in 2023. Domestic inflation is also expected to improve, reaching 0.7%.
This anticipated growth is primarily driven by an acceleration in government budget disbursement following the delayed approval of the 2024 fiscal budget, as well as a strong recovery in tourism with a continuous rise in international arrivals. Private consumption is also projected to continue expanding, and exports are expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year. However, the industrial sector still faces challenges from a loss of competitiveness in some areas, and rising geopolitical risks need to be monitored.
Given these factors, KTAM projects the Thai equity market’s SET Index will target 1,450 points by the end of 2024. While the market may remain range-bound in the short term and be subject to volatility from political and external factors, KTAM recommends the KT-HiDiv fund.
